Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium · 86° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (West Georgia–Arkansas State) | 10–46 | – | 7–52 |
| Spread | Arkansas State −36.1 | Arkansas State −31.5 | Arkansas State −45 |
| Total | 56.8 | 56.5 | 59 |
| Arkansas State win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas State −31.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas State by 36.10%
West Georgia by 14+
1%
West Georgia by 1–13
7%
Arkansas State by 1–13
91%
Arkansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| West Georgia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.326 | Offense EPA / play | −0.031 #79 |
| +0.203 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.131 #123 |
| −15.6% | Offense success rate | +2.8% #36 |
| +9.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.5% #109 |
| −0.236 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.049 #58 |
| −0.400 | Passing EPA / play | −0.045 #79 |
| +0.128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.112 #119 |
| +0.251 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.258 #132 |
| −22.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #75 |
| +13.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #108 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #85 |
| +5.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #128 |
| −3.04 | Points per drive | −0.43 #85 |
| +1.56 | Points per drive allowed | +0.27 #78 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.57 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #49 |
| +0.45 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #85 |
| +3.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.7% #43 |
| −3.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #88 |
| +1.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #73 |
| −5.7% | Havoc created | −2.2% #112 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.082 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.064 #107 |
| +0.005 | Passing explosiveness | +0.115 #65 |
| −0.49 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #103 |
| +0.156 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.220 #134 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 53% #105 |
| −6.8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.6 #30 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| West Georgia | Season to date | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 3.5 / 49.5 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| -46.0 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| -19.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.3 |
| 51.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
West Georgia: last 1 games
| L0-47 |
Arkansas State: last 1 games
| L24-42 |
