Final
Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 62° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Liberty–CCU) | 25–25 | – | 34–17 |
| Spread | CCU −0.1 | Liberty −2.5 | Liberty −17 |
| Total | 50.3 | 50.5 | 51 |
| Coastal Carolina win chance | 50% | – | – |
Line moved from CCU −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CCU +2.5 Lost★ Under 50.5 Lost
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Coastal Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CCU by 0.119%
Liberty by 14+
31%
Liberty by 1–13
31%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
19%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Liberty | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.089 #105 | Offense EPA / play | +0.006 #61 |
| +0.100 #99 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.039 #77 |
| −1.0% #82 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #86 |
| +2.5% #91 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.9% #105 |
| −0.070 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.032 #67 |
| −0.077 #88 | Passing EPA / play | −0.067 #85 |
| +0.118 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.007 #55 |
| +0.067 #80 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.184 #114 |
| −5.0 #92 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.0 #100 |
| +1.0 #74 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #84 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.7% #25 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.1% #37 |
| +1.0% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #66 |
| −0.69 #100 | Points per drive | −1.07 #117 |
| +0.10 #72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.09 #71 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.21 #52 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #44 |
| +0.24 #113 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.29 #117 |
| −5.9% #12 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #85 |
| +0.3% #67 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.7% #129 |
| −0.6% #90 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.2% #137 |
| +0.5% #48 | Havoc created | −1.3% #86 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.184 #136 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.091 #112 |
| +0.375 #6 | Passing explosiveness | +0.392 #5 |
| −0.40 #109 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #85 |
| +0.105 #108 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.126 #20 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #20 | Run rate | 54% #84 |
| −12.9 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.6 #102 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Liberty | Season to date | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 25.0 |
| +12.6 | Avg margin | -0.2 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Liberty: last 3 games
| W51-15 | |
| W24-23 | |
| L13-20 |
Coastal Carolina: last 3 games
| L14-22 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L24-31 |
