Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Liberty–James Madison) | 20–30 | – | 13–20 |
| Spread | James Madison −10.1 | James Madison −6 | James Madison −7 |
| Total | 50.8 | 50.5 | 33 |
| James Madison win chance | 74% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −6 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 10.16%
Liberty by 14+
20%
Liberty by 1–13
33%
James Madison by 1–13
40%
James Madison by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Liberty | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.058 #85 | Offense EPA / play | −0.059 #86 |
| +0.118 #109 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.050 #68 |
| −1.7% #74 | Offense success rate | −2.6% #93 |
| +4.4% #100 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #42 |
| −0.012 #61 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.043 #77 |
| −0.076 #96 | Passing EPA / play | −0.067 #94 |
| +0.100 #113 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.055 #73 |
| +0.084 #86 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #82 |
| −4.8 #97 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.9 #72 |
| +5.9 #97 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.9 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.6% #75 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.2% #96 |
| +4.1% #111 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #85 |
| −0.63 #100 | Points per drive | −0.39 #85 |
| +1.01 #96 | Points per drive allowed | +0.75 #79 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 #79 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #78 |
| +0.27 #113 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #37 |
| +0.6% #54 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.1% #93 |
| −2.2% #104 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.2% #25 |
| −0.0% #68 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #49 |
| −3.9% #133 | Havoc created | −0.8% #77 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.016 #92 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #57 |
| +0.001 #83 | Passing explosiveness | +0.014 #57 |
| −0.12 #75 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #74 |
| +0.005 #116 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.017 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #15 | Run rate | 52% #62 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Liberty | Season to date | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 13.2 |
| +12.6 | Avg margin | +31.6 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.4 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
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