Final
Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium · 73° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Liberty–Delaware) | 27–20 | – | 30–14 |
| Spread | Liberty −7.1 | Liberty −7 | Liberty −16 |
| Total | 46.3 | 51.5 | 44 |
| Delaware win chance | 32% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Liberty −7 Won★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Liberty (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 7.133%
Liberty by 14+
34%
Liberty by 1–13
24%
Delaware by 1–13
9%
Delaware by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Liberty | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.047 #85 | Offense EPA / play | −0.060 #91 |
| +0.046 #75 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.102 #100 |
| +1.6% #49 | Offense success rate | −2.5% #92 |
| +0.2% #61 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.2% #93 |
| −0.026 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.023 #94 |
| −0.004 #56 | Passing EPA / play | −0.125 #97 |
| +0.087 #101 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #43 |
| +0.044 #72 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.214 #123 |
| −3.0 #83 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.7 #105 |
| −0.2 #65 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.3 #109 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.3% #30 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.4% #101 |
| −0.1% #67 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #83 |
| −0.48 #93 | Points per drive | −0.77 #104 |
| +0.11 #72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #118 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.29 #38 | Line yards per rush | −0.35 #129 |
| +0.24 #107 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #58 |
| −6.3% #10 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #128 |
| −0.3% #76 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #79 |
| −0.9% #80 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.5% #138 |
| −0.4% #67 | Havoc created | +1.1% #33 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.200 #134 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.020 #86 |
| +0.359 #9 | Passing explosiveness | +0.225 #31 |
| −0.25 #84 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.62 #129 |
| +0.173 #123 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.028 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 65% #9 | Run rate | 50% #119 |
| −12.2 #95 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.7 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Liberty | Season to date | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 30.4 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 21.4 / 25.6 |
| +12.6 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.0 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
Liberty: last 4 games
| W34-17 | |
| W51-15 | |
| W24-23 | |
| L13-20 |
Delaware: last 4 games
| L3-42 | |
| W22-14 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W42-7 |
