BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Florida
16
Florida
SEC · 2026
4-1
Record
7.6-4.4
Projected regular season
7%
Playoff chance
+14.9
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 12:45 PM
vs South Carolina
70% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Florida Atlantic
W
66-21
−23.4
−26.5
Sep 12
vs
Campbell
W
52-3
−45.3
−51.5
Sep 19
at
Auburn
W
44-39
+0.1
−2.5
Sep 26
vs
9
Ole Miss
W
52-28
−0.9
−4
Oct 3
at
14
Missouri
L
17-45
−4.5
−5.5
Oct 10
vs
South Carolina
70%
−8.4
−11.5
Oct 17
at
1
Texas
19%
+14.1
–
Oct 31
vs
2
Georgia
15%
+17.2
+12.5
Nov 7
vs
Oklahoma
61%
−4.3
–
Nov 14
at
Kentucky
54%
−1.5
–
Nov 21
vs
Vanderbilt
80%
−13.7
–
Nov 27
at
Florida State
64%
−6.1
−4.5
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.09
+0.00
+0.10
+0.19
+0.29
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: +0.09
Net · 2: +0.14
Net · 3: +0.19
Net · 4: +0.24
Net · 5: +0.26
Net · 6: +0.21
Net · 7: +0.20
Net · 8: +0.20
Net · 9: +0.20
Net · 10: +0.20
Net · 11: +0.20
Net · 12: +0.20
Net · 13: +0.20
Net · 15: +0.20
Offense · 1: +0.05
Offense · 2: +0.11
Offense · 3: +0.14
Offense · 4: +0.19
Offense · 5: +0.20
Offense · 6: +0.18
Offense · 7: +0.18
Offense · 8: +0.18
Offense · 9: +0.18
Offense · 10: +0.18
Offense · 11: +0.18
Offense · 12: +0.18
Offense · 13: +0.18
Offense · 15: +0.18
Defense (lower is better) · 1: −0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 2: −0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 3: −0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 4: −0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 5: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 6: −0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 7: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 8: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 9: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 10: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 11: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 12: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 13: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 15: −0.02
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1523
1544
1565
1586
1607
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Sep 5: 1528
Elo · Sep 12: 1536
Elo · Sep 19: 1557
Elo · Sep 26: 1601
Elo · Oct 3: 1572
Season to date
Record
4-1
Conference
2-1
Home
3-0
Away
1-1
Against the spread
3-2
Over/under
4-1
Points for / against
46.2 / 27.2
Avg margin
+19.0