Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 80° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FAU–Florida) | 16–39 | – | 21–66 |
| Spread | Florida −23.4 | Florida −26.5 | Florida −45 |
| Total | 54.6 | 59.5 | 87 |
| Florida win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FAU +26.5 Lost★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Florida Atlantic (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida by 23.41%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
6%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
21%
Florida by 1–13
72%
Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FAU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.056 #94 | Offense EPA / play | +0.055 #30 |
| +0.106 #117 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.053 #26 |
| −2.1% #98 | Offense success rate | +3.3% #25 |
| +3.7% #114 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #24 |
| −0.033 #117 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.104 #18 |
| −0.078 #92 | Passing EPA / play | +0.051 #28 |
| +0.095 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.047 #22 |
| +0.100 #100 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.064 #21 |
| −3.2 #84 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.6 #37 |
| +8.1 #131 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.8 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #89 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.2% #20 |
| +1.9% #100 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.5% #21 |
| −0.21 #77 | Points per drive | +0.48 #28 |
| +0.86 #124 | Points per drive allowed | −0.51 #22 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.05 #114 | Line yards per rush | +0.30 #13 |
| +0.12 #100 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #22 |
| −1.9% #61 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.5% #40 |
| −2.0% #125 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #33 |
| −0.3% #110 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #46 |
| −1.8% #118 | Havoc created | +0.5% #34 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.039 #11 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.024 #40 |
| +0.153 #29 | Passing explosiveness | +0.032 #125 |
| −0.28 #117 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.14 #20 |
| −0.007 #44 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.003 #61 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #129 | Run rate | 52% #118 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FAU | Season to date | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.2 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 46.2 / 27.2 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.8 |
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