Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern Miss–Auburn) | 18–32 | – | 8–43 |
| Spread | Auburn −13.9 | Auburn −32.5 | Auburn −35 |
| Total | 49.6 | 56.5 | 51 |
| Auburn win chance | 81% | – | – |
Line moved from Auburn −29.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern Miss +32.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Won
Spread: 18.6 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 6.9 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Auburn by 13.94%
Southern Miss by 14+
15%
Southern Miss by 1–13
31%
Auburn by 1–13
50%
Auburn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.015 #63 | Offense EPA / play | −0.017 #65 |
| +0.011 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.086 #15 |
| −0.4% #66 | Offense success rate | +1.1% #54 |
| −1.1% #47 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.7% #16 |
| +0.096 #33 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.024 #73 |
| −0.134 #109 | Passing EPA / play | −0.052 #81 |
| +0.035 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.158 #5 |
| +0.092 #89 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.017 #45 |
| −2.2 #69 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #67 |
| +2.0 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.1 #13 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.4% #15 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.3% #67 |
| +2.6% #96 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #75 |
| −0.07 #55 | Points per drive | −0.23 #67 |
| +0.33 #85 | Points per drive allowed | −0.87 #13 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.36 #21 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #66 |
| −0.10 #45 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.51 #6 |
| −4.1% #33 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #92 |
| +1.2% #45 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.5% #15 |
| −1.0% #85 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #129 |
| +0.0% #61 | Havoc created | +2.2% #16 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.045 #97 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.001 #76 |
| +0.249 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.004 #117 |
| −0.56 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.01 #38 |
| +0.233 #135 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.092 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #39 | Run rate | 52% #109 |
| −36.9 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.7 #36 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern Miss | Season to date | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 26.4 / 34.6 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 21.4 |
| -8.2 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| +0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.7 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.8 |
Southern Miss: last 1 games
| W49-3 |
Auburn: last 1 games
| W17-16 |
