Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Kyle Field · 94° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kentucky–Texas A&M) | 13–39 | – | 31–21 |
| Spread | Texas A&M −25.9 | Texas A&M −16.5 | Kentucky −10 |
| Total | 52.3 | 48.5 | 52 |
| Texas A&M win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas A&M −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M −16.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 9.4 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas A&M by 25.91%
Kentucky by 14+
5%
Kentucky by 1–13
18%
Texas A&M by 1–13
77%
Texas A&M by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kentucky | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.040 #79 | Offense EPA / play | +0.084 #26 |
| −0.003 #40 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.216 #3 |
| +2.0% #38 | Offense success rate | +4.9% #16 |
| +1.8% #63 | Defense success rate allowed | −7.6% #5 |
| −0.083 #97 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.012 #46 |
| +0.004 #57 | Passing EPA / play | +0.145 #23 |
| +0.039 #64 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.249 #2 |
| −0.034 #38 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.223 #5 |
| −0.2 #55 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.4 #7 |
| −0.0 #56 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #5 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.3% #53 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #27 |
| −1.6% #38 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.9% #10 |
| −0.29 #70 | Points per drive | +1.06 #22 |
| −0.06 #28 | Points per drive allowed | −1.13 #2 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.12 #27 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #37 |
| −0.20 #22 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #15 |
| −0.8% #47 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #22 |
| +1.9% #35 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #22 |
| +0.9% #91 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #26 |
| +1.8% #26 | Havoc created | +5.2% #2 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.183 #133 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.124 #117 |
| +0.007 #69 | Passing explosiveness | −0.056 #90 |
| −0.40 #111 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #57 |
| −0.143 #24 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.032 #93 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #89 | Run rate | 54% #46 |
| +3.1 #12 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.9 #34 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kentucky | Season to date | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 18.6 |
| +7.8 | Avg margin | +13.2 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
Kentucky: last 2 games
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
Texas A&M: last 2 games
| W48-20 | |
| W50-0 |
