Final
Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 79° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kentucky–South Carolina) | 25–31 | – | 35–34 |
| Spread | South Carolina −6.3 | South Carolina −2.5 | Kentucky −1 |
| Total | 55.3 | 52.5 | 69 |
| South Carolina win chance | 65% | – | – |
Line moved from South Carolina −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Carolina −2.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Carolina by 6.310%
Kentucky by 14+
24%
Kentucky by 1–13
34%
South Carolina by 1–13
32%
South Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kentucky | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.043 #46 | Offense EPA / play | +0.045 #43 |
| −0.084 #20 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.036 #72 |
| +5.8% #15 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #53 |
| −1.2% #48 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #31 |
| +0.098 #42 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.201 #7 |
| −0.005 #57 | Passing EPA / play | −0.081 #88 |
| +0.034 #74 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.093 #18 |
| −0.162 #13 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.159 #107 |
| +3.4 #38 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #30 |
| −4.5 #30 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.5% #35 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.4% #100 |
| +0.4% #75 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.2% #95 |
| +0.26 #45 | Points per drive | +1.07 #20 |
| −0.54 #26 | Points per drive allowed | −0.39 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.42 #20 | Line yards per rush | +0.69 #3 |
| −0.21 #35 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.59 #5 |
| −4.4% #37 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.0% #28 |
| +1.1% #56 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.9% #8 |
| −2.2% #48 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #49 |
| +2.2% #23 | Havoc created | −1.2% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.066 #106 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.189 #9 |
| +0.021 #97 | Passing explosiveness | +0.088 #78 |
| +0.24 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.10 #2 |
| −0.136 #19 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.141 #116 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #58 | Run rate | 56% #61 |
| +4.2 #5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.7 #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kentucky | Season to date | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 26.8 |
| +7.8 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Kentucky: last 4 games
| W45-21 | |
| W31-21 | |
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
South Carolina: last 4 games
| L18-49 | |
| L34-41 | |
| W45-9 | |
| W57-0 |
