Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET
Kyle Field · 84° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (The Citadel–Texas A&M) | 5–58 | – |
| Spread | Texas A&M −52.8 | No line |
| Total | 63.0 | n/a |
| Texas A&M win chance | 100% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas A&M by 52.80%
The Citadel by 14+
0%
The Citadel by 1–13
1%
Texas A&M by 1–13
99%
Texas A&M by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| The Citadel | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.212 | Offense EPA / play | +0.029 #52 |
| +0.352 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.039 #32 |
| −10.1% | Offense success rate | +2.2% #38 |
| +15.9% | Defense success rate allowed | −3.4% #18 |
| −0.124 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.034 #48 |
| −0.183 | Passing EPA / play | +0.042 #51 |
| +0.417 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.147 #11 |
| +0.226 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #84 |
| −16.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #27 |
| +22.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.4 #11 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.6% #40 |
| +9.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.6% #12 |
| −2.58 | Points per drive | +0.73 #24 |
| +3.01 | Points per drive allowed | −0.66 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #23 |
| +1.02 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.21 #22 |
| +4.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #35 |
| −8.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #29 |
| +2.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #29 |
| −5.7% | Havoc created | +2.3% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.010 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.022 #78 |
| +0.464 | Passing explosiveness | −0.092 #110 |
| −0.34 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #74 |
| −0.106 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.137 #121 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 70% | Run rate | 54% #43 |
| −30.1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.0 #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| The Citadel | Season to date | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 43.0 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 18.6 |
| +2.0 | Avg margin | +13.2 |
| +22.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
The Citadel: last 1 games
| W43-41 |
Texas A&M: last 5 games
| W34-7 | |
| L6-35 | |
| L21-31 | |
| W48-20 | |
| W50-0 |
