Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 82° · wind 19 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon–Oklahoma State) | 38–10 | – | 31–39 |
| Spread | Oregon −27.4 | Oregon −24.5 | Oklahoma State −8 |
| Total | 48.3 | 55.5 | 70 |
| Oklahoma State win chance | 4% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon −24.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.2 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 27.480%
Oregon by 14+
16%
Oregon by 1–13
4%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
0%
Oklahoma State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.146 #10 | Offense EPA / play | −0.138 #127 |
| −0.100 #10 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.093 #97 |
| +7.1% #7 | Offense success rate | −3.2% #109 |
| −5.5% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #80 |
| +0.153 #13 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.091 #130 |
| +0.119 #19 | Passing EPA / play | −0.101 #97 |
| −0.082 #19 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.031 #78 |
| −0.101 #17 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.145 #109 |
| +10.5 #10 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.1 #120 |
| −6.4 #16 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #83 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.1% #14 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.4% #68 |
| −6.1% #10 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.1% #21 |
| +1.09 #20 | Points per drive | −0.81 #108 |
| −0.93 #11 | Points per drive allowed | +0.19 #69 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #24 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #89 |
| −0.19 #32 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #61 |
| −4.4% #31 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #97 |
| −0.5% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #78 |
| −4.0% #12 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #43 |
| +1.0% #36 | Havoc created | −1.5% #95 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.041 #52 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.117 #123 |
| +0.115 #64 | Passing explosiveness | +0.021 #107 |
| +0.26 #23 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #104 |
| +0.024 #74 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.021 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #85 | Run rate | 52% #111 |
| +7.4 #19 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.1 #68 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon | Season to date | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 47.5 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 19.8 |
| +24.2 | Avg margin | +17.5 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.8 |
Oregon: last 1 games
| W34-27 |
Oklahoma State: last 1 games
| L10-24 |
