Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 92° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas State–TCU) | 22–36 | – | 7–31 |
| Spread | TCU −13.3 | TCU −18.5 | TCU −24 |
| Total | 57.7 | 56.5 | 38 |
| TCU win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from TCU −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas State +18.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around TCU by 13.35%
Arkansas State by 14+
16%
Arkansas State by 1–13
31%
TCU by 1–13
48%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.063 #94 | Offense EPA / play | +0.031 #44 |
| +0.149 #127 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.005 #51 |
| +1.8% #43 | Offense success rate | +0.8% #63 |
| +5.3% #126 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.5% #52 |
| +0.018 #72 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.049 #56 |
| −0.060 #78 | Passing EPA / play | +0.015 #49 |
| +0.014 #64 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.143 #12 |
| +0.308 #135 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #84 |
| −1.3 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #42 |
| +6.3 #114 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #42 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.4% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.9% #114 |
| +7.0% #132 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #97 |
| +0.34 #42 | Points per drive | −0.27 #72 |
| +0.56 #99 | Points per drive allowed | −0.18 #48 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #80 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #84 |
| +0.45 #130 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #54 |
| −1.9% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #73 |
| −6.8% #137 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #85 |
| −1.0% #79 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #47 |
| −2.5% #116 | Havoc created | +1.4% #30 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.107 #117 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.016 #70 |
| −0.011 #108 | Passing explosiveness | +0.169 #47 |
| −0.66 #133 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #27 |
| +0.202 #130 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.019 #57 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #89 | Run rate | 52% #110 |
| −20.2 #111 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.2 #108 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas State | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Arkansas State: last 2 games
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
TCU: last 2 games
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
