Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 44° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Notre Dame–BYU) | 29–21 | – |
| Spread | Notre Dame −8.1 | Notre Dame −10 |
| Total | 50.5 | 54.5 |
| BYU win chance | 31% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU +10 ★ Under 54.5
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 8.135%
Notre Dame by 14+
34%
Notre Dame by 1–13
22%
BYU by 1–13
8%
BYU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Notre Dame | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.230 #5 | Offense EPA / play | +0.154 #14 |
| −0.172 #5 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.098 #15 |
| +11.5% #4 | Offense success rate | +5.1% #14 |
| −7.8% #5 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.7% #23 |
| +0.116 #16 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.210 #3 |
| +0.331 #4 | Passing EPA / play | +0.046 #49 |
| −0.153 #8 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.048 #31 |
| −0.200 #10 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.113 #22 |
| +15.5 #3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.0 #40 |
| −10.8 #3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #67 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.5% #106 |
| −5.2% #10 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #63 |
| +2.98 #1 | Points per drive | +0.47 #37 |
| −0.74 #6 | Points per drive allowed | −0.04 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #22 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #14 |
| −0.37 #15 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #32 |
| −4.0% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #39 |
| +4.2% #14 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.6% #23 |
| −3.6% #11 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.4% #5 |
| +6.5% #1 | Havoc created | +1.2% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.122 #115 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.097 #30 |
| −0.068 #100 | Passing explosiveness | −0.192 #129 |
| −0.42 #109 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.06 #64 |
| −0.264 #4 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.120 #35 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #52 | Run rate | 58% #17 |
| −1.7 #20 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.4 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Notre Dame | Season to date | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 41.2 / 11.8 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 14.2 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | +23.0 |
| +0.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.0 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Notre Dame: last 5 games
| W37-26 | |
| W49-10 | |
| W27-10 | |
| W52-0 | |
| W41-13 |
BYU: last 4 games
| W17-10 | |
| W41-23 | |
| W28-17 | |
| W63-7 |
