Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 88° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado–Baylor) | 20–32 | – | 13–23 |
| Spread | Baylor −11.9 | Baylor −8.5 | Baylor −10 |
| Total | 51.7 | 54.5 | 36 |
| Baylor win chance | 77% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Baylor −8.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Baylor (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Baylor by 11.95%
Colorado by 14+
18%
Colorado by 1–13
32%
Baylor by 1–13
45%
Baylor by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.017 #72 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #60 |
| +0.038 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.026 #40 |
| −3.4% #95 | Offense success rate | +0.6% #52 |
| +0.4% #52 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.8% #39 |
| −0.071 #93 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.018 #71 |
| +0.006 #57 | Passing EPA / play | −0.026 #75 |
| −0.130 #9 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.083 #19 |
| +0.215 #123 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.026 #44 |
| −4.4 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #60 |
| +1.7 #69 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.0 #31 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.6% #89 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.1% #31 |
| +6.8% #123 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.0% #42 |
| −0.38 #82 | Points per drive | −0.22 #73 |
| +0.56 #73 | Points per drive allowed | −0.23 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #67 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #45 |
| −0.29 #16 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #49 |
| −0.4% #55 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #36 |
| +7.8% #3 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #38 |
| +0.9% #93 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #72 |
| +1.2% #35 | Havoc created | +0.4% #52 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.022 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.038 #81 |
| +0.242 #8 | Passing explosiveness | +0.073 #41 |
| −0.08 #60 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.60 #130 |
| +0.225 #135 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.230 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #71 | Run rate | 46% #120 |
| −10.6 #61 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #55 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado | Season to date | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 18.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 14.2 |
| -6.8 | Avg margin | +20.6 |
| -8.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.3 |
| 68.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
Colorado: last 3 games
| L7-41 | |
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
Baylor: last 3 games
| W36-19 | |
| W44-3 | |
| L16-17 |
