Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 72° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BYU–TCU) | 28–21 | – | 17–10 |
| Spread | BYU −7.5 | BYU −5.5 | BYU −7 |
| Total | 48.9 | 48.5 | 27 |
| TCU win chance | 32% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −5.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 7.534%
BYU by 14+
34%
BYU by 1–13
23%
TCU by 1–13
9%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| BYU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.199 #7 | Offense EPA / play | −0.009 #69 |
| −0.096 #14 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.054 #33 |
| +9.6% #8 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #75 |
| −3.5% #28 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #51 |
| +0.230 #5 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.063 #112 |
| +0.159 #18 | Passing EPA / play | +0.038 #48 |
| −0.025 #47 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.181 #6 |
| −0.099 #24 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.063 #76 |
| +5.2 #25 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #62 |
| −4.6 #29 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #22 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.3% #84 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.8% #127 |
| −0.3% #63 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #78 |
| +0.65 #29 | Points per drive | −0.29 #79 |
| −0.24 #43 | Points per drive allowed | −0.58 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.59 #5 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #121 |
| −0.18 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #53 |
| −5.9% #16 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.8% #111 |
| +3.5% #25 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.2% #75 |
| −7.1% #2 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #73 |
| −0.0% #56 | Havoc created | −0.3% #64 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.034 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.113 #117 |
| −0.045 #125 | Passing explosiveness | +0.207 #35 |
| −0.09 #63 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #118 |
| −0.125 #24 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.104 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #18 | Run rate | 51% #114 |
| −16.3 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.3 #80 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| BYU | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 37.2 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| +23.0 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
BYU: last 3 games
| W41-23 | |
| W28-17 | |
| W63-7 |
TCU: last 4 games
| L13-21 | |
| W31-7 | |
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
