Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 10:15 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 73° · wind 8 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Iowa State–BYU) | 19–36 | 17–33 | – |
| Spread | BYU −16.9 | BYU −16.1 | BYU −10.5 |
| Total | 54.4 | 49.8 | 46.5 |
| BYU win chance | 85% | – | – |
Line moved from BYU −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −10.5 ★ Over 46.5
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ BYU −10.5 ☆ Over 46.5
Spread: 5.6 pts better than Vegas for BYU. Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 16.93%
Iowa State by 14+
12%
Iowa State by 1–13
28%
BYU by 1–13
57%
BYU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Iowa State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.008 #59 | Offense EPA / play | +0.154 #14 |
| +0.050 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.098 #15 |
| −1.4% #75 | Offense success rate | +5.1% #14 |
| +2.4% #72 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.7% #23 |
| +0.031 #51 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.211 #3 |
| −0.004 #64 | Passing EPA / play | +0.046 #48 |
| +0.067 #79 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.048 #31 |
| +0.034 #67 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.113 #22 |
| +3.0 #43 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.0 #40 |
| +0.7 #59 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #16 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.7% #84 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.5% #105 |
| −4.6% #11 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #64 |
| +0.01 #66 | Points per drive | +0.47 #37 |
| +0.20 #45 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #69 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #14 |
| +0.26 #93 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #33 |
| +2.3% #91 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #40 |
| −3.1% #102 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.6% #23 |
| +0.6% #81 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.4% #5 |
| −0.4% #64 | Havoc created | +1.2% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.139 #14 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.097 #30 |
| −0.004 #76 | Passing explosiveness | −0.192 #129 |
| +0.26 #27 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.06 #63 |
| +0.093 #113 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.120 #34 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #22 | Run rate | 58% #17 |
| −6.1 #47 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.4 #97 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Iowa State | Season to date | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 33.6 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 14.2 |
| +12.4 | Avg margin | +23.0 |
| +5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.0 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Iowa State: last 5 games
| W45-42 | |
| L17-31 | |
| W55-7 | |
| L13-16 | |
| W38-10 |
BYU: last 4 games
| W17-10 | |
| W41-23 | |
| W28-17 | |
| W63-7 |
