Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium · 62° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona State–Texas Tech) | 18–37 | – |
| Spread | Texas Tech −19.0 | No line |
| Total | 54.7 | n/a |
| Texas Tech win chance | 88% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 19.02%
Arizona State by 14+
10%
Arizona State by 1–13
26%
Texas Tech by 1–13
62%
Texas Tech by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.059 #89 | Offense EPA / play | +0.040 #49 |
| +0.024 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.137 #9 |
| +1.4% #52 | Offense success rate | +4.0% #30 |
| −2.0% #41 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #10 |
| −0.017 #92 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.130 #25 |
| −0.076 #84 | Passing EPA / play | +0.050 #43 |
| +0.030 #70 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.108 #21 |
| +0.045 #69 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.137 #17 |
| +2.8 #44 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.1 #21 |
| +4.0 #91 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.1 #15 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.8% #20 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #25 |
| −2.7% #40 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.9% #37 |
| +0.35 #46 | Points per drive | +0.29 #50 |
| +0.23 #78 | Points per drive allowed | −0.91 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #58 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #40 |
| −0.03 #61 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.29 #21 |
| −2.8% #58 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #71 |
| −0.7% #83 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #27 |
| −1.2% #71 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #115 |
| −0.5% #68 | Havoc created | +1.1% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.197 #133 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.057 #51 |
| +0.099 #76 | Passing explosiveness | −0.034 #120 |
| +0.04 #47 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #34 |
| +0.087 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.012 #63 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #78 | Run rate | 55% #74 |
| −4.2 #39 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.5 #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona State | Season to date | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 33.2 / 31.8 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 16.2 |
| +1.5 | Avg margin | +18.6 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.7 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |
Arizona State: last 4 games
| L19-55 | |
| W24-17 | |
| L20-48 | |
| W70-7 |
Texas Tech: last 5 games
| W29-7 | |
| W49-14 | |
| W28-26 | |
| W35-24 | |
| W33-10 |
