Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 90° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SMU–Louisville) | 31–29 | – | 31–41 |
| Spread | SMU −2.2 | Louisville −3 | Louisville −10 |
| Total | 60.8 | 57.5 | 72 |
| Louisville win chance | 45% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisville −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SMU +3 Lost★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for SMU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SMU by 2.224%
SMU by 14+
32%
SMU by 1–13
29%
Louisville by 1–13
16%
Louisville by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.198 #7 | Offense EPA / play | +0.139 #16 |
| −0.104 #10 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.029 #70 |
| +8.9% #5 | Offense success rate | +5.2% #18 |
| −4.8% #13 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.7% #41 |
| +0.056 #51 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.134 #24 |
| +0.289 #5 | Passing EPA / play | +0.183 #11 |
| −0.130 #15 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #58 |
| −0.105 #18 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.035 #70 |
| +6.5 #22 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.9 #16 |
| −5.0 #20 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #74 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.5% #27 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.6% #49 |
| −1.2% #47 | Passing-down success allowed | −8.1% #3 |
| +0.86 #25 | Points per drive | +0.38 #40 |
| −0.41 #28 | Points per drive allowed | −0.05 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #48 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #68 |
| −0.12 #50 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #93 |
| −0.9% #84 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #79 |
| +4.3% #20 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.6% #135 |
| −1.5% #69 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.6% #25 |
| +2.2% #22 | Havoc created | −1.0% #77 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.044 #94 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.114 #26 |
| +0.184 #44 | Passing explosiveness | +0.185 #43 |
| −0.12 #63 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.43 #16 |
| +0.083 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.175 #125 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #120 | Run rate | 55% #74 |
| −7.7 #54 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.1 #60 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SMU | Season to date | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 29.2 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +9.4 |
| -5.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.2 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |
SMU: last 2 games
| W56-10 | |
| W27-24 |
