Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 69° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bucknell–Pittsburgh) | 0–53 | – | 0–59 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −55.3 | Pittsburgh −54.5 | Pittsburgh −59 |
| Total | 51.1 | 63.5 | 59 |
| Pittsburgh win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Pittsburgh −53.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Pittsburgh −54.5 Won★ Under 63.5 Won
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 12.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 55.30%
Bucknell by 14+
0%
Bucknell by 1–13
0%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
100%
Pittsburgh by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bucknell | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.403 | Offense EPA / play | +0.025 #51 |
| +0.321 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.059 #20 |
| −19.2% | Offense success rate | +0.2% #58 |
| +13.7% | Defense success rate allowed | −4.2% #12 |
| −0.493 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.007 #55 |
| −0.388 | Passing EPA / play | −0.002 #64 |
| +0.251 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.103 #13 |
| +0.370 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.085 #23 |
| −28.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #41 |
| +18.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #11 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.6% #37 |
| +7.6% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.0% #25 |
| −3.80 | Points per drive | +0.08 #52 |
| +2.40 | Points per drive allowed | −0.60 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.31 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #29 |
| +0.89 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.64 #5 |
| +8.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #74 |
| −9.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.7% #16 |
| +3.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #53 |
| −7.1% | Havoc created | +1.2% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.264 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.051 #89 |
| −0.060 | Passing explosiveness | +0.076 #40 |
| −1.26 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #59 |
| +0.304 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.045 #97 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% | Run rate | 52% #77 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.9 #25 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bucknell | Season to date | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 0.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 38.4 / 13.4 |
| -59.0 | Avg margin | +25.0 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.5 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |
Bucknell: last games
No games yet.
Pittsburgh: last 3 games
| W27-13 | |
| W12-7 | |
| W59-14 |
