Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CARK–Florida State) | 11–54 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Florida State −43.4 | Florida State −45.5 | Florida State −27 |
| Total | 65.2 | 62.5 | 41 |
| Florida State win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida State −42.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CARK +45.5 Won★ Over 62.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Central Arkansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida State by 43.40%
Central Arkansas by 14+
0%
Central Arkansas by 1–13
3%
Florida State by 1–13
96%
Florida State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CARK | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.259 | Offense EPA / play | +0.123 #20 |
| +0.283 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.097 #98 |
| −5.6% | Offense success rate | +2.9% #39 |
| +11.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.8% #69 |
| −0.049 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.212 #8 |
| −0.446 | Passing EPA / play | +0.084 #34 |
| +0.219 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.030 #71 |
| +0.347 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.116 #94 |
| −14.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #27 |
| +19.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.3 #53 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.2% #14 |
| +6.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #84 |
| −1.93 | Points per drive | +0.39 #37 |
| +2.76 | Points per drive allowed | −0.42 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 | Line yards per rush | +0.49 #12 |
| +0.52 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #88 |
| +0.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.2% #8 |
| −5.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #94 |
| +2.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.5% #70 |
| −4.0% | Havoc created | −1.3% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.199 #9 |
| −0.020 | Passing explosiveness | +0.514 #2 |
| +0.19 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #47 |
| −0.028 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.093 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 62% #19 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.0 #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CARK | Season to date | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 21.6 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| +18.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Central Arkansas: last games
No games yet.
Florida State: last 3 games
| L36-50 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
