Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 72° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wake Forest–Louisville) | 24–38 | – | 30–27 |
| Spread | Louisville −13.5 | Louisville −11.5 | Wake Forest −3 |
| Total | 62.4 | 57.5 | 57 |
| Louisville win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisville −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisville −11.5 Lost★ Over 57.5 Lost
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Louisville (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisville by 13.55%
Wake Forest by 14+
16%
Wake Forest by 1–13
31%
Louisville by 1–13
49%
Louisville by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wake Forest | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.087 #28 | Offense EPA / play | +0.172 #12 |
| −0.021 #45 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.050 #34 |
| +1.3% #52 | Offense success rate | +6.2% #12 |
| −0.7% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #25 |
| +0.093 #37 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.164 #14 |
| +0.068 #36 | Passing EPA / play | +0.219 #11 |
| −0.028 #45 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #43 |
| −0.018 #48 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #57 |
| +0.7 #55 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.5 #11 |
| −1.1 #55 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #78 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.0% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.1% #76 |
| +0.6% #75 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.6% #20 |
| −0.08 #68 | Points per drive | +0.45 #34 |
| −0.56 #26 | Points per drive allowed | −0.15 #50 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #57 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #93 |
| −0.27 #24 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #102 |
| −4.2% #37 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #95 |
| +6.7% #4 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.2% #136 |
| −3.1% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #40 |
| −1.8% #100 | Havoc created | −1.3% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.046 #93 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.148 #16 |
| +0.281 #21 | Passing explosiveness | +0.223 #29 |
| +0.07 #41 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.82 #5 |
| −0.328 #2 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.243 #134 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #111 | Run rate | 56% #66 |
| −0.1 #22 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.6 #30 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wake Forest | Season to date | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 29.2 |
| +13.6 | Avg margin | +9.4 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.2 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |
