Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium · 66° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Boise State–Oregon) | 13–40 | – | 27–34 |
| Spread | Oregon −27.5 | Oregon −24.5 | Oregon −7 |
| Total | 52.6 | 53.5 | 61 |
| Oregon win chance | 96% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon −24.5 Lost★ Under 53.5 Lost
Spread: 3.0 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 27.50%
Boise State by 14+
4%
Boise State by 1–13
16%
Oregon by 1–13
80%
Oregon by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Boise State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.006 #58 | Offense EPA / play | +0.199 #1 |
| +0.030 #56 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.121 #8 |
| −1.4% #71 | Offense success rate | +7.7% #3 |
| −0.1% #37 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.1% #6 |
| −0.006 #56 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.151 #1 |
| −0.017 #66 | Passing EPA / play | +0.205 #3 |
| +0.062 #82 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.081 #11 |
| −0.001 #43 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.142 #6 |
| +0.3 #56 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.8 #2 |
| +0.9 #53 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.3 #7 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.7% #64 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.0% #10 |
| +1.2% #59 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #7 |
| +0.01 #51 | Points per drive | +2.06 #2 |
| +0.47 #60 | Points per drive allowed | −0.71 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #66 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #3 |
| +0.14 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.25 #15 |
| +0.8% #63 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #7 |
| −0.5% #61 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #26 |
| −0.5% #56 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #5 |
| +0.3% #46 | Havoc created | +4.2% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.007 #66 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.038 #2 |
| −0.001 #86 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #81 |
| −0.04 #53 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.36 #2 |
| −0.025 #72 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.019 #79 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #32 | Run rate | 55% #34 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Boise State | Season to date | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 34.4 / 20.6 | Points for / against | 47.5 / 23.2 |
| +13.8 | Avg margin | +24.2 |
| +5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.5 |
| 67.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
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