Final
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 72° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fresno State–USC) | 15–38 | – | 0–39 |
| Spread | USC −22.6 | USC −21.5 | USC −39 |
| Total | 53.1 | 51.5 | 39 |
| USC win chance | 92% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC −21.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 22.61%
Fresno State by 14+
7%
Fresno State by 1–13
22%
USC by 1–13
71%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fresno State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.091 #112 | Offense EPA / play | +0.169 #6 |
| +0.041 #62 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.063 #16 |
| −4.0% #107 | Offense success rate | +6.4% #9 |
| +2.0% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #26 |
| −0.102 #120 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.082 #17 |
| −0.045 #83 | Passing EPA / play | +0.209 #2 |
| +0.059 #78 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.038 #21 |
| +0.045 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.112 #11 |
| −3.9 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.0 #8 |
| +1.4 #64 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.7% #76 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.8% #6 |
| +1.7% #69 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #18 |
| −0.59 #97 | Points per drive | +1.56 #5 |
| +0.64 #71 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #18 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #106 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #19 |
| +0.17 #82 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #50 |
| +2.9% #113 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #27 |
| −0.5% #63 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #39 |
| −0.2% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #27 |
| −0.4% #68 | Havoc created | +1.7% #19 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.010 #71 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.020 #7 |
| +0.006 #71 | Passing explosiveness | +0.041 #27 |
| −0.03 #48 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #9 |
| −0.015 #88 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.043 #44 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #44 | Run rate | 50% #96 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fresno State | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 27.8 / 16.4 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +11.4 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| +9.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Fresno State: last games
No games yet.
USC: last 1 games
| W42-26 |
