Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 81° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–Michigan State) | 19–32 | – | 7–35 |
| Spread | Michigan State −13.2 | Michigan State −17.5 | Michigan State −28 |
| Total | 51.7 | 49.5 | 42 |
| Michigan State win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan State −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU +17.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan State by 13.24%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
16%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
32%
Michigan State by 1–13
48%
Michigan State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.186 #134 | Offense EPA / play | −0.069 #106 |
| +0.088 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.055 #79 |
| −6.9% #132 | Offense success rate | −1.9% #94 |
| +2.6% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #53 |
| −0.148 #136 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.082 #126 |
| −0.172 #119 | Passing EPA / play | −0.039 #76 |
| +0.067 #98 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.044 #86 |
| +0.118 #99 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.068 #83 |
| −9.0 #127 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #62 |
| +5.7 #109 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.4 #76 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.8% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.0% #112 |
| +1.7% #84 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #85 |
| −1.52 #135 | Points per drive | −0.38 #80 |
| +0.26 #77 | Points per drive allowed | +0.02 #56 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.41 #135 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #108 |
| −0.13 #37 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.35 #16 |
| +1.3% #119 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #121 |
| +3.6% #22 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.3% #7 |
| +0.4% #117 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #50 |
| −0.2% #68 | Havoc created | +0.9% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.062 #43 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.047 #99 |
| +0.031 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.019 #109 |
| −0.25 #87 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #116 |
| +0.019 #68 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.195 #130 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #125 | Run rate | 56% #60 |
| −10.9 #73 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.1 #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EMU | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-3 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 22.2 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 60.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Eastern Michigan: last 2 games
| L21-27 | |
| W28-17 |
Michigan State: last 1 games
| W30-20 |
