Final
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 72° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana–USC) | 14–41 | – | 30–49 |
| Spread | USC −27.7 | USC −30.5 | USC −19 |
| Total | 55.2 | 58.5 | 79 |
| USC win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −28.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana +30.5 Won★ Under 58.5 Lost
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 27.70%
Louisiana by 14+
4%
Louisiana by 1–13
16%
USC by 1–13
80%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.062 #100 | Offense EPA / play | +0.179 #6 |
| +0.062 #85 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.071 #18 |
| −1.2% #82 | Offense success rate | +13.2% #1 |
| +7.2% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.8% #26 |
| +0.116 #21 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.023 #95 |
| −0.133 #108 | Passing EPA / play | +0.368 #2 |
| +0.018 #70 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.108 #14 |
| +0.162 #116 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.043 #75 |
| −2.8 #82 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.7 #15 |
| +3.8 #95 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.4% #36 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +12.2% #1 |
| +7.5% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #41 |
| −0.61 #96 | Points per drive | +1.61 #13 |
| +0.63 #105 | Points per drive allowed | −0.69 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #67 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #16 |
| +0.21 #110 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #22 |
| −0.5% #93 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #64 |
| +0.9% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.0% #18 |
| +0.3% #113 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.0% #6 |
| −0.1% #66 | Havoc created | −0.4% #70 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.163 #10 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.230 #137 |
| −0.041 #129 | Passing explosiveness | +0.016 #110 |
| +0.08 #32 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #112 |
| −0.084 #34 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.046 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #16 | Run rate | 55% #75 |
| −24.5 #102 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.0 #61 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 29.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| +7.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Louisiana: last 1 games
| W38-7 |
USC: last 2 games
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
