Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium · 68° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USC–Rutgers) | 39–20 | – | 42–35 |
| Spread | USC −19.5 | USC −21 | USC −7 |
| Total | 59.0 | 59.5 | 77 |
| Rutgers win chance | 12% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rutgers +21 Won★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 19.563%
USC by 14+
25%
USC by 1–13
10%
Rutgers by 1–13
2%
Rutgers by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| USC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.172 #10 | Offense EPA / play | −0.075 #97 |
| −0.022 #42 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.106 #106 |
| +10.1% #3 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #59 |
| −3.2% #21 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.9% #108 |
| −0.001 #83 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.126 #133 |
| +0.346 #3 | Passing EPA / play | +0.026 #43 |
| −0.049 #37 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.075 #96 |
| +0.115 #98 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.187 #117 |
| +10.1 #12 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #88 |
| −3.5 #31 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.3 #113 |
| Situational | ||
| +9.7% #6 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.6% #39 |
| −1.4% #44 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #99 |
| +1.53 #15 | Points per drive | −0.57 #94 |
| −0.41 #30 | Points per drive allowed | +0.20 #77 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.35 #25 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #96 |
| −0.24 #35 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #100 |
| −2.5% #60 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #97 |
| +2.0% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #77 |
| −6.3% #2 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #135 |
| −1.7% #96 | Havoc created | −3.7% #133 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.165 #129 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.051 #96 |
| +0.083 #79 | Passing explosiveness | +0.291 #19 |
| −0.37 #99 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #114 |
| +0.082 #99 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.018 #73 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #57 | Run rate | 55% #75 |
| −5.4 #42 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.2 #65 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| USC | Season to date | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-5 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.3 / 25.5 | Points for / against | 30.0 / 32.2 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | -2.2 |
| -7.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
USC: last 3 games
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
Rutgers: last 2 games
| L21-28 | |
| L21-37 |
