Final
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl · 68° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Purdue–UCLA) | 20–40 | – | 38–52 |
| Spread | UCLA −19.5 | UCLA −13.5 | UCLA −14 |
| Total | 60.4 | 53.5 | 90 |
| UCLA win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from UCLA −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCLA −13.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCLA by 19.52%
Purdue by 14+
10%
Purdue by 1–13
25%
UCLA by 1–13
63%
UCLA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Purdue | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.033 #41 | Offense EPA / play | +0.063 #30 |
| +0.118 #100 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.050 #27 |
| +0.4% #52 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #30 |
| +4.9% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #35 |
| −0.010 #61 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.197 #5 |
| +0.083 #35 | Passing EPA / play | −0.137 #112 |
| +0.095 #93 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #46 |
| +0.103 #93 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.156 #11 |
| −0.4 #57 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.4 #36 |
| +6.9 #102 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.3% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.3% #82 |
| +7.4% #129 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.1% #24 |
| −0.05 #54 | Points per drive | −0.13 #60 |
| +1.41 #118 | Points per drive allowed | −0.22 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.06 #58 | Line yards per rush | +0.47 #3 |
| +0.07 #57 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #58 |
| −0.6% #52 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.7% #20 |
| +0.2% #53 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #56 |
| −0.5% #54 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #51 |
| −0.5% #63 | Havoc created | +0.6% #48 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.064 #98 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.096 #24 |
| −0.054 #89 | Passing explosiveness | −0.023 #80 |
| −0.42 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.55 #10 |
| +0.030 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.048 #98 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #91 | Run rate | 55% #33 |
| −16.4 #90 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.4 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Purdue | Season to date | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 30.4 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 18.8 |
| -4.6 | Avg margin | +26.0 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +18.0 |
| 59.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Purdue: last 2 games
| L36-38 | |
| W44-19 |
UCLA: last 2 games
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
