Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 65° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–Wisconsin) | 14–33 | – | 10–54 |
| Spread | Wisconsin −19.0 | Wisconsin −23.5 | Wisconsin −44 |
| Total | 46.4 | 43.5 | 64 |
| Wisconsin win chance | 89% | – | – |
Line moved from Wisconsin −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU +23.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wisconsin by 19.02%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
10%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
26%
Wisconsin by 1–13
63%
Wisconsin by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.173 #130 | Offense EPA / play | −0.044 #83 |
| +0.147 #116 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.047 #72 |
| −6.9% #126 | Offense success rate | −3.7% #94 |
| +6.1% #116 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.7% #62 |
| −0.143 #120 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.060 #32 |
| −0.203 #126 | Passing EPA / play | −0.122 #106 |
| +0.163 #120 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #75 |
| +0.117 #99 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.027 #64 |
| −11.2 #134 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #99 |
| +8.2 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.2% #130 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.4% #115 |
| +6.0% #119 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.9% #5 |
| −1.65 #136 | Points per drive | −0.68 #94 |
| +1.13 #106 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #15 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #114 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #66 |
| +0.20 #83 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.15 #72 |
| +1.8% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #61 |
| −1.2% #73 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.5% #128 |
| +2.8% #123 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #60 |
| +0.1% #53 | Havoc created | −3.8% #128 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 #68 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.129 #15 |
| −0.194 #127 | Passing explosiveness | +0.080 #43 |
| −0.21 #76 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.28 #23 |
| +0.023 #90 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.165 #20 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #117 | Run rate | 54% #39 |
| −12.1 #71 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.7 #33 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EMU | Season to date | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.2 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 16.6 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 60.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Eastern Michigan: last 3 games
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 | |
| W28-17 |
Wisconsin: last 2 games
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
