Final
Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 62° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCLA–Maryland) | 26–28 | – | 54–3 |
| Spread | Maryland −2.0 | UCLA −2.5 | UCLA −51 |
| Total | 54.7 | 55.5 | 57 |
| Maryland win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from UCLA −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Maryland +2.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Maryland (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 2.016%
UCLA by 14+
29%
UCLA by 1–13
32%
Maryland by 1–13
23%
Maryland by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCLA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.097 #25 | Offense EPA / play | +0.058 #36 |
| −0.011 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.012 #62 |
| +4.9% #22 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #45 |
| −1.0% #50 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.3% #61 |
| +0.277 #1 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.021 #75 |
| −0.125 #103 | Passing EPA / play | +0.013 #46 |
| −0.004 #58 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.087 #25 |
| −0.048 #40 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.102 #89 |
| +5.2 #25 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.3 #48 |
| +0.9 #73 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #48 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.7% #50 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #49 |
| −3.6% #29 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.4% #128 |
| −0.04 #65 | Points per drive | +0.22 #44 |
| −0.08 #56 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.73 #2 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #50 |
| −0.11 #46 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.39 #15 |
| −4.7% #27 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #81 |
| +0.8% #56 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.7% #27 |
| −1.7% #66 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #24 |
| −0.1% #64 | Havoc created | −1.9% #105 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.086 #34 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.077 #38 |
| +0.074 #83 | Passing explosiveness | +0.031 #98 |
| +0.61 #8 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.23 #25 |
| +0.168 #125 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.069 #94 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #35 | Run rate | 43% #137 |
| −7.6 #46 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.8 #121 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCLA | Season to date | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 44.8 / 18.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 30.2 |
| +26.0 | Avg margin | +0.2 |
| +18.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
UCLA: last 3 games
| W52-38 | |
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
Maryland: last 3 games
| L26-35 | |
| W38-14 | |
| W62-0 |
