Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium · 68° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Illinois–Ohio State) | 17–39 | – | 19–42 |
| Spread | Ohio State −22.2 | Ohio State −25.5 | Ohio State −23 |
| Total | 55.6 | 53.5 | 61 |
| Ohio State win chance | 92% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio State −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Illinois +25.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 22.21%
Illinois by 14+
7%
Illinois by 1–13
22%
Ohio State by 1–13
70%
Ohio State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Illinois | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.061 #34 | Offense EPA / play | +0.196 #5 |
| +0.150 #114 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.189 #3 |
| +4.8% #18 | Offense success rate | +9.4% #4 |
| +4.1% #90 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.9% #8 |
| +0.007 #56 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.040 #39 |
| +0.175 #19 | Passing EPA / play | +0.277 #5 |
| +0.069 #88 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.169 #3 |
| +0.196 #119 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.251 #3 |
| +3.9 #32 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.5 #8 |
| +1.8 #71 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −12.3 #3 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.9% #14 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.5% #28 |
| +1.9% #75 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #46 |
| +0.60 #31 | Points per drive | +2.07 #6 |
| +1.07 #105 | Points per drive allowed | −0.97 #3 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #72 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #32 |
| −0.10 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.23 #21 |
| −1.7% #34 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #63 |
| −0.2% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.6% #39 |
| −4.7% #4 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #12 |
| −1.7% #95 | Havoc created | +2.2% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.046 #47 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.012 #60 |
| −0.036 #89 | Passing explosiveness | +0.050 #56 |
| +0.17 #31 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #73 |
| −0.136 #30 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.094 #43 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #103 | Run rate | 50% #93 |
| −12.3 #76 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.2 #46 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Illinois | Season to date | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.6 / 26.0 | Points for / against | 42.2 / 12.6 |
| +4.6 | Avg margin | +29.6 |
| -5.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Illinois: last 3 games
| W48-10 | |
| L27-31 | |
| W42-23 |
Ohio State: last 3 games
| W59-3 | |
| L23-24 | |
| W56-3 |
