Final
Fri, Oct 2, 8:00 PM ET
Ryan Field · 55° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Penn State–Northwestern) | 22–28 | – | 13–34 |
| Spread | Northwestern −5.5 | Penn State −3 | Northwestern −21 |
| Total | 49.9 | 46.5 | 47 |
| Northwestern win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern +3 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 8.5 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 5.511%
Penn State by 14+
26%
Penn State by 1–13
34%
Northwestern by 1–13
30%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Penn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.013 #55 | Offense EPA / play | +0.135 #18 |
| −0.067 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.027 #63 |
| −2.7% #88 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #18 |
| −3.9% #16 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #95 |
| −0.062 #87 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.125 #15 |
| +0.070 #44 | Passing EPA / play | +0.199 #13 |
| +0.079 #88 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.092 #93 |
| −0.224 #8 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.088 #24 |
| +2.4 #47 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #37 |
| −7.0 #10 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.1 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.2% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.2% #18 |
| −2.5% #29 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #28 |
| +0.54 #33 | Points per drive | +0.02 #60 |
| −0.27 #21 | Points per drive allowed | −0.50 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.36 #109 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #32 |
| −0.18 #25 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.47 #119 |
| −1.8% #38 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.0% #4 |
| +1.9% #32 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.2% #106 |
| −0.2% #63 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #27 |
| +2.4% #20 | Havoc created | −0.0% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.061 #98 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.008 #58 |
| +0.123 #27 | Passing explosiveness | +0.042 #59 |
| −0.20 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #34 |
| −0.393 #1 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.224 #7 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #47 | Run rate | 53% #58 |
| −11.8 #86 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.3 #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Penn State | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 32.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 53.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Northwestern: last 3 games
| L23-29 | |
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
