Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 76° · wind 15 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Illinois–Michigan State) | 26–24 | 23–25 | – |
| Spread | Illinois −1.7 | Michigan State −2.1 | Illinois −2.5 |
| Total | 49.9 | 48.3 | 47.5 |
| Michigan State win chance | 46% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Michigan State +2.5 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Michigan State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Michigan State +2.5 ☆ Over 47.5
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Michigan State. Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 1.722%
Illinois by 14+
32%
Illinois by 1–13
30%
Michigan State by 1–13
16%
Michigan State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Illinois | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.083 #29 | Offense EPA / play | −0.112 #109 |
| +0.158 #117 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #66 |
| +3.9% #24 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #48 |
| +4.2% #91 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #41 |
| +0.086 #25 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.105 #107 |
| +0.118 #32 | Passing EPA / play | −0.131 #106 |
| +0.071 #83 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #50 |
| +0.202 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.055 #73 |
| +1.7 #55 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #92 |
| +1.0 #62 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.3% #16 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.0% #87 |
| +6.5% #115 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #61 |
| +0.29 #50 | Points per drive | −0.46 #87 |
| +0.76 #83 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #22 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.10 #36 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #83 |
| −0.11 #35 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #41 |
| −3.1% #15 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.9% #85 |
| −0.5% #59 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.2% #13 |
| −2.9% #16 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.7% #119 |
| −2.4% #108 | Havoc created | −0.8% #69 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.059 #40 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.199 #130 |
| +0.006 #68 | Passing explosiveness | −0.180 #128 |
| +0.31 #23 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.49 #115 |
| −0.136 #28 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.140 #123 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #111 | Run rate | 54% #46 |
| −3.3 #33 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.5 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Illinois | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 30.6 / 26.0 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| +4.6 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| -5.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Illinois: last 5 games
| L17-24 | |
| L19-42 | |
| W48-10 | |
| L27-31 | |
| W42-23 |
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L3-31 | |
| L13-31 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
