Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 81° · wind 20 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Indiana–Nebraska) | 29–24 | 33–25 | – |
| Spread | Indiana −4.7 | Indiana −7.6 | Indiana −7.5 |
| Total | 52.3 | 58.0 | 49.5 |
| Nebraska win chance | 38% | – | – |
Line moved from Indiana −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska +7.5 ★ Over 49.5
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Indiana −7.5 ☆ Over 49.5
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Indiana. Total: 8.5 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 4.728%
Indiana by 14+
34%
Indiana by 1–13
26%
Nebraska by 1–13
12%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Indiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.212 #6 | Offense EPA / play | +0.140 #17 |
| −0.100 #13 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #30 |
| +5.0% #15 | Offense success rate | +3.9% #25 |
| −6.0% #8 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #26 |
| +0.099 #21 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.184 #6 |
| +0.352 #2 | Passing EPA / play | +0.074 #40 |
| −0.137 #14 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #69 |
| −0.061 #29 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.150 #15 |
| +9.5 #13 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.6 #16 |
| −10.3 #5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #35 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.3% #42 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.7% #13 |
| −0.7% #48 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #5 |
| +1.78 #8 | Points per drive | +0.92 #22 |
| −0.40 #16 | Points per drive allowed | +0.08 #41 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #32 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #15 |
| −0.38 #13 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #62 |
| −1.9% #33 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #26 |
| +1.0% #43 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #76 |
| −3.5% #13 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #35 |
| +3.1% #16 | Havoc created | +1.5% #31 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.084 #33 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.201 #4 |
| +0.182 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.007 #66 |
| +0.83 #5 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.36 #18 |
| +0.033 #95 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.004 #84 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #18 | Run rate | 53% #55 |
| −11.7 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.6 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Indiana | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 44.2 / 10.8 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| +33.4 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 50.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Indiana: last 5 games
| W47-15 | |
| W29-23 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W52-16 |
Nebraska: last 5 games
| W48-23 | |
| W31-13 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
