Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 63° · wind 9 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Minnesota–Purdue) | 30–26 | 32–23 | – |
| Spread | Minnesota −4.3 | Minnesota −8.9 | Minnesota −2.5 |
| Total | 55.7 | 55.7 | 50.5 |
| Purdue win chance | 39% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota −2.5 ★ Over 50.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Minnesota −2.5 ☆ Over 50.5
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota. Total: 5.2 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Minnesota by 4.327%
Minnesota by 14+
33%
Minnesota by 1–13
27%
Purdue by 1–13
13%
Purdue by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Minnesota | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.096 #103 | Offense EPA / play | +0.102 #23 |
| −0.019 #42 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.131 #106 |
| −0.6% #66 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #32 |
| +0.2% #53 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.0% #97 |
| −0.148 #117 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.000 #64 |
| −0.045 #80 | Passing EPA / play | +0.203 #15 |
| +0.050 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #104 |
| −0.034 #38 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.131 #95 |
| −0.5 #67 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #50 |
| −1.7 #41 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #90 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.0% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #49 |
| +3.1% #89 | Passing-down success allowed | +8.5% #128 |
| +0.56 #32 | Points per drive | +0.27 #53 |
| +0.38 #55 | Points per drive allowed | +1.45 #115 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.79 #135 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #73 |
| +0.01 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #95 |
| +6.4% #127 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #43 |
| +0.5% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.1% #100 |
| −1.0% #46 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #30 |
| +5.5% #3 | Havoc created | −1.3% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.188 #127 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.023 #79 |
| −0.143 #122 | Passing explosiveness | −0.034 #87 |
| −0.46 #114 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #91 |
| −0.073 #55 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.115 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #126 | Run rate | 49% #102 |
| −10.1 #81 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.5 #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Minnesota | Season to date | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 32.0 / 18.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 35.0 |
| +14.0 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.4 |
Minnesota: last 5 games
| W20-14 | |
| W27-24 | |
| W41-7 | |
| L13-38 | |
| W59-7 |
Purdue: last 5 games
| W24-17 | |
| L10-49 | |
| L38-52 | |
| L36-38 | |
| W44-19 |
