Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 64° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Rutgers–Maryland) | 27–31 | – |
| Spread | Maryland −4.4 | No line |
| Total | 57.6 | n/a |
| Maryland win chance | 61% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 4.413%
Rutgers by 14+
26%
Rutgers by 1–13
33%
Maryland by 1–13
28%
Maryland by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rutgers | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.028 #75 | Offense EPA / play | −0.074 #93 |
| +0.183 #125 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.004 #51 |
| +2.4% #37 | Offense success rate | −2.6% #88 |
| +8.0% #125 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #68 |
| −0.101 #104 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.013 #69 |
| +0.059 #44 | Passing EPA / play | −0.167 #112 |
| +0.204 #130 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.009 #50 |
| +0.157 #107 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #48 |
| +0.2 #64 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #71 |
| +9.7 #123 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #88 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.0% #36 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.6% #53 |
| +5.1% #103 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.6% #99 |
| +0.00 #66 | Points per drive | −0.06 #69 |
| +1.34 #112 | Points per drive allowed | +0.98 #100 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.14 #77 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #87 |
| +0.45 #119 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.17 #27 |
| −0.2% #60 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.3% #92 |
| −2.6% #95 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.6% #35 |
| +1.1% #92 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #49 |
| −3.9% #126 | Havoc created | −0.9% #72 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.105 #108 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.163 #10 |
| +0.299 #4 | Passing explosiveness | −0.080 #103 |
| −0.23 #84 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.35 #21 |
| −0.065 #57 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.153 #25 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #61 | Run rate | 39% #137 |
| −8.9 #68 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.7 #60 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rutgers | Season to date | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 30.0 / 32.2 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 30.2 |
| -2.2 | Avg margin | +0.2 |
| -6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
Rutgers: last 5 games
| L15-47 | |
| W58-7 | |
| L35-42 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L21-37 |
Maryland: last 5 games
| L23-48 | |
| L3-54 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W38-14 | |
| W62-0 |
