Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 58° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Washington–Purdue) | 29–26 | – |
| Spread | Washington −2.9 | No line |
| Total | 55.5 | n/a |
| Purdue win chance | 43% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 2.925%
Washington by 14+
33%
Washington by 1–13
28%
Purdue by 1–13
15%
Purdue by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Washington | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.017 #70 | Offense EPA / play | +0.101 #23 |
| −0.032 #37 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.131 #105 |
| +0.1% #58 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #33 |
| −0.6% #42 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.0% #97 |
| −0.063 #91 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.000 #65 |
| −0.022 #71 | Passing EPA / play | +0.203 #14 |
| −0.051 #29 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #104 |
| +0.020 #61 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.131 #94 |
| −1.7 #74 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #52 |
| −2.4 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.9 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.3% #98 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #49 |
| +0.2% #52 | Passing-down success allowed | +8.5% #128 |
| −0.28 #78 | Points per drive | +0.27 #53 |
| +0.01 #39 | Points per drive allowed | +1.45 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.09 #66 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #73 |
| −0.09 #37 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #95 |
| +2.1% #88 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #42 |
| +5.0% #9 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.0% #99 |
| −0.1% #65 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #30 |
| +1.2% #35 | Havoc created | −1.3% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.057 #95 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.023 #79 |
| −0.127 #119 | Passing explosiveness | −0.034 #88 |
| −0.30 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #91 |
| +0.008 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.115 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #123 | Run rate | 49% #102 |
| −8.8 #67 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.5 #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Washington | Season to date | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 26.6 / 18.4 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 35.0 |
| +8.2 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| -11.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 62.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.4 |
Washington: last 5 games
| L21-25 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W48-16 | |
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
Purdue: last 5 games
| W24-17 | |
| L10-49 | |
| L38-52 | |
| L36-38 | |
| W44-19 |
