Final
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium · 86° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SAC–Fresno State) | 15–31 | – | 3–49 |
| Spread | Fresno State −15.8 | Fresno State −17.5 | Fresno State −46 |
| Total | 45.4 | 43.5 | 52 |
| Fresno State win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Fresno State −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SAC +17.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Fresno State by 15.83%
Sacramento State by 14+
13%
Sacramento State by 1–13
30%
Fresno State by 1–13
55%
Fresno State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SAC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.199 #137 | Offense EPA / play | −0.120 #119 |
| +0.146 #128 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.010 #64 |
| −9.4% #138 | Offense success rate | −4.5% #122 |
| +4.2% #117 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.7% #81 |
| −0.081 #125 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.077 #121 |
| −0.265 #134 | Passing EPA / play | +0.026 #46 |
| +0.080 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.176 #2 |
| +0.148 #112 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.268 #135 |
| −9.1 #128 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #118 |
| +8.4 #127 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #59 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.8% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.0% #39 |
| +0.7% #71 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.9% #135 |
| −1.32 #133 | Points per drive | −0.88 #114 |
| +0.91 #122 | Points per drive allowed | +0.51 #97 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.89 #138 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #112 |
| +0.42 #133 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.04 #58 |
| +8.3% #138 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #120 |
| −3.7% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.5% #26 |
| +1.4% #128 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #93 |
| −2.1% #108 | Havoc created | +0.3% #52 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.124 #19 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.105 #119 |
| −0.042 #130 | Passing explosiveness | +0.170 #40 |
| −0.24 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #72 |
| −0.220 #4 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.123 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #120 | Run rate | 58% #41 |
| −37.7 #127 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +14.5 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SAC | Season to date | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 17.6 / 28.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 16.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.4 |
| 49.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Sacramento State: last 2 games
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
Fresno State: last 1 games
| L0-39 |
