Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 87° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Incarnate Word–Texas State) | 22–48 | – | 10–63 |
| Spread | Texas State −26.8 | Texas State −30.5 | Texas State −53 |
| Total | 69.8 | 66.5 | 73 |
| Texas State win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas State −29.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Incarnate Word +30.5 Lost★ Over 66.5 Won
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Incarnate Word (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas State by 26.81%
Incarnate Word by 14+
5%
Incarnate Word by 1–13
17%
Texas State by 1–13
78%
Texas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Incarnate Word | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.207 | Offense EPA / play | +0.121 #19 |
| +0.195 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.138 #106 |
| −7.5% | Offense success rate | +4.9% #17 |
| +10.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #109 |
| −0.256 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.098 #20 |
| −0.158 | Passing EPA / play | +0.190 #16 |
| +0.013 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.025 #61 |
| +0.272 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.217 #124 |
| −8.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #47 |
| +16.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.1 #127 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +12.6% #2 |
| +7.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +8.8% #131 |
| −0.14 | Points per drive | +0.00 #59 |
| +2.00 | Points per drive allowed | +1.90 #131 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #23 |
| +0.32 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #39 |
| +6.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #48 |
| −2.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.4% #10 |
| +4.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #14 |
| −2.4% | Havoc created | −1.3% #86 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.018 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.026 #55 |
| −0.148 | Passing explosiveness | +0.152 #23 |
| −0.17 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.07 #1 |
| −0.118 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.016 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 42% | Run rate | 59% #13 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +6.2 #3 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Incarnate Word | Season to date | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 10.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 33.2 |
| -53.0 | Avg margin | +1.6 |
| -22.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 64.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.4 |
Incarnate Word: last games
No games yet.
Texas State: last 3 games
| W49-35 | |
| L26-31 | |
| L7-59 |
