Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Alamodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado State–UTSA) | 20–35 | – | 45–59 |
| Spread | UTSA −14.9 | UTSA −14.5 | UTSA −14 |
| Total | 55.7 | 56.5 | 104 |
| UTSA win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from UTSA −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA −14.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 14.94%
Colorado State by 14+
14%
Colorado State by 1–13
30%
UTSA by 1–13
52%
UTSA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.002 #61 | Offense EPA / play | −0.002 #63 |
| +0.146 #111 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.062 #19 |
| −2.6% #85 | Offense success rate | +0.6% #53 |
| +8.3% #129 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.7% #63 |
| +0.010 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.078 #23 |
| −0.015 #71 | Passing EPA / play | −0.107 #102 |
| +0.182 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.040 #68 |
| +0.225 #127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.140 #15 |
| −1.3 #72 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #62 |
| +8.9 #118 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #61 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #72 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.5% #129 |
| +5.2% #105 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #71 |
| −0.57 #90 | Points per drive | −0.03 #61 |
| +1.55 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +0.24 #47 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 #127 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #83 |
| +0.61 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.29 #103 |
| +3.3% #107 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.1% #57 |
| −6.3% #133 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.0% #112 |
| +3.5% #126 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #58 |
| +1.9% #23 | Havoc created | −1.4% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.156 #13 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.045 #86 |
| −0.006 #78 | Passing explosiveness | −0.285 #137 |
| +0.31 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.32 #19 |
| +0.047 #98 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.283 #4 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #125 | Run rate | 50% #85 |
| −15.6 #101 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.5 #32 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado State | Season to date | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 37.4 / 38.6 | Points for / against | 31.4 / 26.2 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | +5.2 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
Colorado State: last 3 games
| L23-41 | |
| W58-24 | |
| W35-13 |
UTSA: last 3 games
| L6-30 | |
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
