Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 70° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UConn–Miami (OH)) | 28–28 | – | 21–24 |
| Spread | Miami (OH) −0.2 | Miami (OH) −2.5 | Miami (OH) −3 |
| Total | 56.2 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Miami (OH) win chance | 51% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami (OH) −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UConn +2.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami (OH) by 0.219%
UConn by 14+
31%
UConn by 1–13
31%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
20%
Miami (OH) by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UConn | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.014 #73 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #43 |
| +0.022 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.062 #85 |
| −2.8% #98 | Offense success rate | −0.2% #70 |
| +2.1% #84 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #89 |
| +0.023 #73 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.044 #106 |
| −0.011 #62 | Passing EPA / play | +0.243 #6 |
| +0.048 #88 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.041 #83 |
| +0.014 #59 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.133 #102 |
| −0.2 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #74 |
| +4.2 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.7% #88 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.2% #77 |
| +4.5% #115 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #74 |
| −0.02 #62 | Points per drive | +0.50 #33 |
| +0.48 #98 | Points per drive allowed | +0.89 #118 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.05 #97 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #98 |
| −0.05 #60 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #41 |
| −1.6% #77 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.9% #25 |
| +1.6% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.9% #47 |
| −0.7% #89 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #76 |
| +0.2% #59 | Havoc created | −2.7% #119 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.036 #91 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.143 #124 |
| +0.272 #22 | Passing explosiveness | +0.352 #11 |
| −0.16 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #74 |
| −0.067 #38 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #62 | Run rate | 54% #91 |
| −17.6 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UConn | Season to date | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.0 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 29.2 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| +8.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
UConn: last 3 games
| W48-20 | |
| L14-38 | |
| W56-7 |
Miami (OH): last 3 games
| L31-35 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L14-59 |
