Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 80° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Navy–FAU) | 32–30 | – | 30–38 |
| Spread | Navy −2.3 | Navy −4.5 | FAU −8 |
| Total | 61.8 | 59.5 | 68 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Navy −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FAU +4.5 Won★ Over 59.5 Won
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Florida Atlantic (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Navy by 2.324%
Navy by 14+
32%
Navy by 1–13
28%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
16%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Navy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.013 #59 | Offense EPA / play | −0.050 #84 |
| +0.204 #134 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.192 #131 |
| +1.0% #49 | Offense success rate | −1.4% #67 |
| +6.4% #123 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.0% #127 |
| +0.057 #30 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.010 #60 |
| −0.347 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.101 #99 |
| +0.136 #118 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.207 #133 |
| +0.321 #137 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.127 #100 |
| −5.2 #101 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.3 #63 |
| +8.6 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +16.3 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.8% #107 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #26 |
| +7.5% #130 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #56 |
| −0.64 #97 | Points per drive | −0.02 #53 |
| +1.94 #132 | Points per drive allowed | +2.22 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #54 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #45 |
| +0.49 #130 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #89 |
| −1.1% #40 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #14 |
| −4.3% #124 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #98 |
| −2.9% #10 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #108 |
| −5.2% #138 | Havoc created | −2.1% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.014 #72 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.095 #22 |
| −0.286 #138 | Passing explosiveness | −0.051 #99 |
| −0.20 #80 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.42 #123 |
| +0.115 #123 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.024 #88 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 76% #3 | Run rate | 43% #134 |
| −36.2 #120 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +10.0 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Navy | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 25.2 / 22.8 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| +2.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
