Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 76° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (East Carolina–Old Dominion) | 26–25 | – | 20–17 |
| Spread | East Carolina −1.4 | Old Dominion −2.5 | East Carolina −3 |
| Total | 50.5 | 48.5 | 37 |
| Old Dominion win chance | 46% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina +2.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 1.421%
East Carolina by 14+
32%
East Carolina by 1–13
30%
Old Dominion by 1–13
17%
Old Dominion by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| East Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.031 #45 | Offense EPA / play | −0.100 #107 |
| +0.054 #78 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #56 |
| +1.3% #54 | Offense success rate | −4.1% #116 |
| +0.8% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #37 |
| +0.053 #55 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.039 #104 |
| +0.012 #51 | Passing EPA / play | −0.132 #107 |
| +0.033 #72 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.083 #27 |
| +0.055 #74 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #75 |
| −2.5 #75 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.1 #111 |
| +0.8 #63 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #78 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.4% #106 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.1% #43 |
| +5.0% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.1% #104 |
| −0.37 #82 | Points per drive | −1.22 #125 |
| −0.06 #60 | Points per drive allowed | +0.10 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 #117 | Line yards per rush | −0.76 #137 |
| −0.09 #52 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #38 |
| +1.4% #114 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.5% #129 |
| +3.5% #27 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.3% #19 |
| −1.1% #78 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #129 |
| −1.3% #86 | Havoc created | +1.4% #33 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.019 #87 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.247 #3 |
| +0.196 #40 | Passing explosiveness | +0.338 #14 |
| −0.16 #70 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.46 #14 |
| +0.042 #81 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.007 #62 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #44 | Run rate | 64% #9 |
| +11.7 #1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.4 #84 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| East Carolina | Season to date | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 0-5 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 25.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 32.4 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | -12.6 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -16.2 |
| 49.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.4 |
Old Dominion: last 2 games
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
