Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 79° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–FAU) | 30–29 | – | 10–16 |
| Spread | FIU −0.5 | FAU −5.5 | FAU −6 |
| Total | 59.1 | 62.5 | 26 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 49% | – | – |
Line moved from FAU −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FIU +5.5 Lost★ Under 62.5 Won
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Florida International (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FIU by 0.520%
Florida International by 14+
31%
Florida International by 1–13
30%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
19%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.126 #118 | Offense EPA / play | −0.043 #82 |
| +0.019 #53 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.156 #121 |
| −5.0% #114 | Offense success rate | −1.9% #77 |
| +0.9% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #91 |
| −0.177 #132 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.068 #91 |
| −0.139 #113 | Passing EPA / play | −0.058 #86 |
| −0.013 #44 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.221 #134 |
| +0.048 #73 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.084 #84 |
| −6.6 #108 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #58 |
| +3.6 #81 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +15.8 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.0% #107 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.2% #48 |
| −2.3% #32 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #52 |
| −1.01 #114 | Points per drive | −0.40 #82 |
| +0.77 #82 | Points per drive allowed | +1.76 #128 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #110 | Line yards per rush | −0.32 #105 |
| −0.11 #37 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #93 |
| +3.6% #110 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #70 |
| +0.2% #54 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.8% #83 |
| +1.1% #98 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.2% #114 |
| −0.6% #68 | Havoc created | +0.0% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.164 #128 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.062 #35 |
| −0.093 #105 | Passing explosiveness | −0.073 #98 |
| −0.35 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.64 #133 |
| −0.051 #57 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.224 #135 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #112 | Run rate | 45% #127 |
| −9.2 #55 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.4 #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FIU | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 18.0 / 14.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| +3.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Florida International: last 2 games
| W33-20 | |
| L9-19 |
