Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 93° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UT Martin–Memphis) | 12–51 | – | 21–45 |
| Spread | Memphis −39.4 | Memphis −33.5 | Memphis −24 |
| Total | 63.5 | 58.5 | 66 |
| Memphis win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Memphis −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Memphis −33.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.0 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Memphis by 39.40%
UT Martin by 14+
1%
UT Martin by 1–13
5%
Memphis by 1–13
94%
Memphis by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UT Martin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.296 | Offense EPA / play | +0.049 #35 |
| +0.398 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.113 #97 |
| −10.7% | Offense success rate | −0.1% #63 |
| +12.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #86 |
| −0.191 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.045 #37 |
| −0.312 | Passing EPA / play | +0.190 #14 |
| +0.239 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.207 #132 |
| +0.492 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.001 #53 |
| −19.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #48 |
| +18.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #77 |
| +14.3% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #42 |
| −2.69 | Points per drive | −0.32 #73 |
| +2.89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.12 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.51 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #60 |
| +0.39 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.29 #97 |
| +3.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.3% #106 |
| −2.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.2% #101 |
| +4.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #38 |
| −2.7% | Havoc created | −0.8% #71 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.063 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.111 #19 |
| −0.192 | Passing explosiveness | +0.279 #10 |
| −0.47 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.58 #9 |
| +0.234 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.052 #101 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 57% #26 |
| −5.0 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.0 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UT Martin | Season to date | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 14.0 / 48.5 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 22.4 |
| -34.5 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| +3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
UT Martin: last 1 games
| L7-52 |
Memphis: last 3 games
| L20-38 | |
| W42-24 | |
| W27-21 |
