Final
Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 82° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Southern–FAU) | 13–52 | – | 10–66 |
| Spread | FAU −38.8 | FAU −47.5 | FAU −56 |
| Total | 65.2 | 62.5 | 76 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from FAU −43.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas Southern +47.5 Lost★ Over 62.5 Won
Spread: 8.7 pts better than Vegas for Texas Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FAU by 38.80%
Texas Southern by 14+
1%
Texas Southern by 1–13
6%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
93%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Southern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.221 | Offense EPA / play | −0.040 #79 |
| +0.391 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.171 #120 |
| −14.2% | Offense success rate | −1.7% #78 |
| +16.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #75 |
| −0.176 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.046 #84 |
| −0.190 | Passing EPA / play | −0.061 #85 |
| +0.366 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.149 #116 |
| +0.385 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.178 #114 |
| −18.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #76 |
| +28.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.7 #123 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #40 |
| +14.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #77 |
| −2.74 | Points per drive | −0.44 #87 |
| +3.84 | Points per drive allowed | +1.41 #116 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.94 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #105 |
| +1.05 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #56 |
| +9.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.2% #59 |
| −8.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #45 |
| +4.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #88 |
| −5.8% | Havoc created | −0.7% #71 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.065 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.049 #45 |
| +0.182 | Passing explosiveness | −0.128 #115 |
| −0.32 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.64 #133 |
| +0.014 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.280 #137 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 46% #121 |
| −23.0 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.3 #70 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Southern | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 10.0 / 58.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| -48.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -11.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Texas Southern: last 1 games
| L10-51 |
Florida Atlantic: last 4 games
| W45-17 | |
| W16-10 | |
| W38-30 | |
| L21-66 |
