Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 69° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Navy) | 25–25 | 26–22 | – |
| Spread | Navy −0.3 | Tulsa −3.5 | Navy −2.5 |
| Total | 49.8 | 48.4 | 48.5 |
| Navy win chance | 51% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulsa +2.5 ★ Over 48.5
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Tulsa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Tulsa +2.5 ☆ Under 48.5
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Tulsa. Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Navy by 0.318%
Tulsa by 14+
31%
Tulsa by 1–13
31%
Navy by 1–13
19%
Navy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.081 #95 | Offense EPA / play | −0.087 #98 |
| −0.010 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.109 #96 |
| −6.1% #117 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #84 |
| −0.2% #47 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.9% #70 |
| +0.034 #48 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.040 #79 |
| −0.190 #117 | Passing EPA / play | −0.331 #137 |
| −0.060 #26 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.024 #54 |
| +0.060 #75 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.173 #115 |
| −5.3 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.1 #120 |
| +2.0 #71 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.2 #92 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.4% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.5% #133 |
| +4.6% #100 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.8% #91 |
| −0.98 #108 | Points per drive | −1.14 #115 |
| +0.36 #54 | Points per drive allowed | +0.89 #92 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #43 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #51 |
| −0.02 #48 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #53 |
| −2.9% #20 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #54 |
| −0.4% #58 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #41 |
| +0.8% #87 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #106 |
| −2.1% #102 | Havoc created | −2.9% #113 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.130 #15 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.002 #68 |
| −0.178 #127 | Passing explosiveness | +0.049 #47 |
| −0.05 #62 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #44 |
| −0.023 #72 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.137 #121 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #100 | Run rate | 71% #4 |
| −10.7 #87 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.2 #134 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 25.2 / 22.8 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | +2.5 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.5 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Tulsa: last 5 games
| L44-45 | |
| L6-34 | |
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
Navy: last 4 games
| L9-14 | |
| L20-24 | |
| L30-38 | |
| W42-15 |
