Final
Fri, Sep 4, 6:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium · 75° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (San José State–EMU) | 26–31 | – | 27–21 |
| Spread | EMU −5.9 | EMU −1.5 | San José State −6 |
| Total | 56.9 | 54.5 | 48 |
| Eastern Michigan win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from EMU −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU −1.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around EMU by 5.911%
San José State by 14+
25%
San José State by 1–13
33%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
31%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| San José State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.052 #92 | Offense EPA / play | −0.046 #86 |
| +0.105 #116 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.145 #134 |
| −0.5% #71 | Offense success rate | −2.1% #97 |
| +2.8% #103 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #130 |
| −0.004 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.014 #78 |
| −0.084 #96 | Passing EPA / play | −0.081 #95 |
| +0.062 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.106 #132 |
| +0.118 #109 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #126 |
| −4.9 #102 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #105 |
| +7.2 #121 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.2 #122 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.4% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #99 |
| +1.2% #84 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.1% #130 |
| −0.57 #105 | Points per drive | −0.60 #109 |
| +0.76 #119 | Points per drive allowed | +0.72 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #79 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #76 |
| +0.14 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #130 |
| −0.9% #93 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #63 |
| −3.1% #136 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #123 |
| −1.1% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #41 |
| −1.7% #117 | Havoc created | −3.5% #137 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.038 #135 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.018 #50 |
| +0.107 #65 | Passing explosiveness | +0.126 #49 |
| −0.24 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #104 |
| +0.079 #132 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.012 #77 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #126 | Run rate | 56% #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| San José State | Season to date | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-4 |
| 22.6 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 25.0 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.5 |
San José State: last 1 games
| L26-42 |
Eastern Michigan: last 1 games
| W28-17 |
