Final
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium · 79° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Georgia State) | 24–35 | – | 14–35 |
| Spread | Georgia State −11.3 | Georgia State −8.5 | Georgia State −21 |
| Total | 58.7 | 56.5 | 49 |
| Georgia State win chance | 76% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia State −8.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia State by 11.36%
Northern Illinois by 14+
18%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
32%
Georgia State by 1–13
43%
Georgia State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.183 #130 | Offense EPA / play | +0.007 #59 |
| +0.180 #130 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.121 #99 |
| −5.8% #113 | Offense success rate | +0.8% #49 |
| +6.4% #117 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.1% #91 |
| −0.097 #104 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.042 #37 |
| −0.226 #125 | Passing EPA / play | +0.018 #51 |
| +0.150 #115 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.185 #129 |
| +0.138 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.008 #56 |
| −8.6 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.0 #55 |
| +8.5 #114 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.8 #117 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.1% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.6% #12 |
| +7.0% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.4% #49 |
| −0.98 #112 | Points per drive | +0.09 #51 |
| +1.69 #127 | Points per drive allowed | +1.19 #110 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.38 #115 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #27 |
| +0.24 #91 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.48 #124 |
| +4.3% #114 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #47 |
| −3.8% #107 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #61 |
| +0.5% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #32 |
| −1.2% #82 | Havoc created | −2.5% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.077 #101 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.179 #8 |
| −0.201 #129 | Passing explosiveness | +0.014 #72 |
| −0.33 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.29 #23 |
| −0.099 #39 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.021 #89 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #65 | Run rate | 50% #96 |
| +1.9 #11 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.3 #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 39.4 / 19.0 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | +20.4 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.7 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Northern Illinois: last 3 games
| L17-42 | |
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
Georgia State: last 3 games
| L30-44 | |
| W31-17 | |
| W59-10 |
