Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–NDSU) | 16–29 | – | 0–28 |
| Spread | NDSU −13.3 | NDSU −17.5 | NDSU −28 |
| Total | 44.6 | 44.5 | 28 |
| North Dakota State win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming +17.5 Lost★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 13.34%
Wyoming by 14+
16%
Wyoming by 1–13
32%
North Dakota State by 1–13
48%
North Dakota State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.116 #115 | Offense EPA / play | −0.067 #94 |
| +0.122 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #25 |
| −3.6% #103 | Offense success rate | −5.9% #123 |
| +6.9% #132 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.1% #83 |
| −0.051 #106 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.051 #107 |
| −0.158 #110 | Passing EPA / play | −0.017 #65 |
| +0.109 #108 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.178 #7 |
| +0.139 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #78 |
| −15.0 #136 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #85 |
| +3.1 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.1 #67 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.4% #86 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.7% #103 |
| +2.3% #91 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.5% #40 |
| −1.70 #135 | Points per drive | +0.02 #61 |
| +0.54 #101 | Points per drive allowed | +0.22 #79 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.14 #60 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #117 |
| +0.38 #123 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #78 |
| −1.3% #75 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #89 |
| −4.1% #121 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #69 |
| +0.2% #103 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #46 |
| −4.4% #135 | Havoc created | −0.2% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.086 #111 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.130 #24 |
| +0.004 #106 | Passing explosiveness | +0.382 #8 |
| −0.53 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.49 #119 |
| −0.050 #44 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.009 #73 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #60 | Run rate | 60% #30 |
| −19.0 #128 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.8 #137 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Wyoming: last 4 games
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
North Dakota State: last 4 games
| W31-10 | |
| W38-32 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
