Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium · 67° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Charlotte–App State) | 18–39 | – | 21–26 |
| Spread | App State −20.8 | App State −16.5 | App State −5 |
| Total | 56.5 | 52.5 | 47 |
| App State win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from App State −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ App State −16.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for App State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around App State by 20.82%
Charlotte by 14+
8%
Charlotte by 1–13
24%
App State by 1–13
66%
App State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Charlotte | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.170 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.002 #63 |
| +0.262 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.120 #101 |
| −7.6% #129 | Offense success rate | −2.6% #83 |
| +13.6% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.8% #110 |
| −0.110 #111 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.081 #95 |
| −0.187 #122 | Passing EPA / play | +0.148 #21 |
| +0.266 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.185 #128 |
| +0.222 #127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #54 |
| −11.3 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #59 |
| +14.9 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #86 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.5% #101 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #38 |
| +17.5% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #31 |
| −1.48 #131 | Points per drive | +0.34 #42 |
| +2.04 #134 | Points per drive allowed | +0.75 #81 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.53 #126 | Line yards per rush | −0.57 #129 |
| +0.46 #125 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.63 #135 |
| +7.6% #133 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.5% #107 |
| +0.2% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #119 |
| +1.1% #100 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #71 |
| −3.9% #130 | Havoc created | +0.4% #51 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.102 #22 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.130 #14 |
| −0.149 #118 | Passing explosiveness | −0.033 #84 |
| +0.04 #46 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.28 #86 |
| −0.354 #2 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.050 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #110 | Run rate | 50% #94 |
| −13.8 #80 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.8 #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Charlotte | Season to date | App State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 17.2 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 22.2 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +12.5 |
| -9.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.9 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Charlotte: last 2 games
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
App State: last 2 games
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
